Risk Assessment for Toxic Air
Pollutants:
A Citizen's Guide
What are Toxic Air Pollutants?
Toxic air pollutants are poisonous
substances in the air that come from natural sources (for example, radon gas
coming up from the ground) or from manmade sources (for example, chemical
compounds given off by factory smokestacks) and can harm the environment or
your health. Inhaling (or breathing) toxic air pollutants can increase your
chances of experiencing health problems. For example, inhaling the benzene
fumes that are given off when you pump gas into your car can increase your
chances of experiencing health effects that have been associated with exposure
to benzene, such as leukemia.
What are Health Risks?
Health risks, put simply, are a measure
of the chance that you will experience health problems. Exposure to toxic air
pollutants can increase your health risks. For example, if you live near a
factory that releases cancer-causing chemicals and inhale contaminated air,
your risk of getting cancer can increase. Breathing air toxics could also
increase your risk of noncancer effects such as emphysema or reproductive
disorders.
What is Risk Assessment?
Risk assessment is one tool used in risk
management. It is the process that scientists and government officials use to
estimate the increased risk of health problems in people who are exposed to
different amounts of toxic substances.
A risk assessment for a toxic air
pollutant combines results of studies on the health effects of various animal
and human exposures to the pollutant with results of studies that estimate the
level of people's exposures at different distances from the source of the
pollutant.
While the estimates provided by these
risk assessments are far from perfect, they do help scientists evaluate the
risks associated with emissions of toxic air pollutants. Using risk estimates
and other factors, the government can set regulatory standards to reduce
people's exposures to toxic air pollutants and reduce the risk of experiencing
health problems.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
or, What Health Problems Are Caused by the Toxic Air Pollutant?
Health Problems of Concern
The toxic air pollutants of greatest
concern are those that cause serious health problems or affect many people.
Health problems can include cancer, respiratory irritation, nervous system
problems, and birth defects.

Some health problems occur very soon
after a person inhales a toxic air pollutant. These immediate effects may be
minor, such as watery eyes. Or they may be serious, such as life-threatening
lung damage.
Other health problems may not appear
until many months or years after a person's first exposure to the toxic air
pollutant. Cancer is one example of a delayed health problem.
Weight of Evidence for Health Problems
of Concern
In a hazard identification,
scientists evaluate all available information about the effects of a toxic air
pollutant to estimate the likelihood that a chemical will cause a certain
effect in humans. The better the evidence, the more certain scientists can be
that a toxic air pollutant causes specific health problems. The amount, type,
and quality of evidence are all important.
The best type of evidence comes from
human studies. This evidence may be in the form of case reports, such as
physicians' reports of an unusual number of cases of a specific illness. Other
more formal studies can be done that compare the number of cases of a
particular illness in groups of people with different levels of exposures (for
example, cases of leukemia in rubber manufacturing workers).
Because human information is very
limited for most toxic air pollutants, scientists often conduct studies on
laboratory animals, such as rats. Animal studies are performed under
controlled laboratory conditions. Scientists can study a variety of health
effects by exposing animals to pollutants at varied concentrations and for
varied time periods.
When relying on animal studies only,
scientists need to be satisfied that health effects in humans are likely to be
the same as those in the animals tested. Scientists try to use animal species
with body functions that are similar to humans.
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
or, How Much of a Pollutant Do People Inhale During a Specific Time Period?
An exposure assessment estimates how much
of a pollutant people inhale during a specific time period, as well as how
many people are exposed.

There are many sources of toxic air
pollutants. For example, a factory smokestack or thousands of automobiles
crossing a busy intersection each day could be the source of a pollutant of
concern. So the first step in an exposure assessment is to decide which
sources are giving off the pollutant of concern.
Once the identity and location of the
source(s) are known, the next step is to determine the amounts of the toxic
air pollutant released in a specific time period and how it moves away from
the source(s).
Engineers use either monitors or
computer models to estimate the amount of pollutant released from the source
and the amount of pollutant at different distances from the source. Monitors
are used to sample the air and measure how much of the pollutant is present.
Computer models use mathematical
equations that represent the processes that occur when a facility releases a
pollutant and also the movement of pollutants through the air. Factors such as
distance from the source to exposed persons, wind speed and direction, and
smokestack height (for factories) affect these estimates.
The number of people exposed at
different distances from the site of release can be estimated with computer
models that use information from the census and from maps. Some models can
even estimate exposures for the different places people are each day --
including indoor, automobile, outdoor, and workplace exposures.
The final step in an exposure assessment
is to estimate the amounts each person inhales. To do this, scientists combine
estimates of breathing rates and lifespan of an average person with estimates
of the amount of pollutant in that person's air.
DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT
or, What Are the Health Problems at Different Exposures?
How Toxic Air Pollutants Move Through
the Body
Entering the Body. Toxic air
pollutants get into the body mainly through breathing. They can also be
ingested (for example, children eating soil contaminated with lead) or
absorbed through the skin.
Movement and Changes in the Body.
Once a pollutant enters the body it can stay in the lungs (like asbestos), be
exhaled, or move into the blood from the lungs (like the oxygen we breathe) or
from the digestive system or skin. In the blood it is carried to all parts of
the body. As it moves around the body, a pollutant can undergo chemical
changes, especially as it passes through the liver, becoming less, or more,
toxic.
Fate. The pollutant can be
exhaled, it can leave the body in urine, bowel movements, sweat, or breast
milk, or it can be stored in hair, bone. or fat.
How Toxic Air Pollutants Change the Way
the Body Works
Toxic air pollutants can cause health
problems by interfering with normal body functions. Most commonly they change
chemical reactions within individual cells, the building blocks of living
things. These changes can kill cells, impair cell function, or redirect cell
activity. The results can be damaged organs, birth defects when the cells of
an unborn child are damaged, or cancer that develops when cells begin to grow
at an uncontrolled rate.
Dose-Response Relationships
The dose-response relationship for a
specific pollutant describes the association between exposure and the observed
response (health effect). In other words, it estimates how different levels of
exposure to a pollutant change the likelihood and severity of health effects.
Just as in the hazard identification, scientists use results of animal and
human studies to establish dose-response relationships.
Dose-response relationship for cancer. [graph to left] In the absence
of clear evidence to the contrary, EPA assumes that there are no exposures
that have "zero risk" -- even a very low exposure to a
cancer-causing pollutant can increase the risk of cancer (albeit a small
amount). EPA also assumes that the relationship between dose and response is a
straight line -- for each unit of increase in exposure (dose), there is an
increase in cancer response.
Dose-response
relationship for noncancer effects. [graph to right above] A dose may
exist below the minimum health effect level for which no adverse effects
occur. EPA typically assumes that at low doses the body's natural protective
mechanisms repair any damage caused by the pollutant, so there is no ill
effect at low doses. However, for some substances noncancer effects may occur
at low doses. The dose-response relationship (the response occurring with
increasing dose) varies with pollutant, individual sensitivity, and type of
health effect.
RISK CHARACTERIZATION
or, What Is the Extra Risk to Health?
Risk information is presented in different
ways to illustrate how individuals or populations may be affected. Some of the
most common risk measures are described here.
Maximum Individual Lifetime Cancer Risks
Combining the results of the exposure
assessment and the dose-response assessment gives an estimate of the increased
lifetime risk of cancer for an individual exposed to the maximum predicted
long-term concentration.
Distribution of Individual Risks
Many people may be exposed to less than
the maximum level. Depending on the amount of exposure, an individual's risk
of cancer will vary. The distribution of individual risk is usually expressed
as the number of people estimated to be at various levels of risk.
Population Cancer Risks
Distributions of individual risk are
used to calculate population risk. The population cancer risk is usually
expressed as the expected increased incidence of cancer (that is, the number
of new cases each year) for all people exposed to the pollutant. For example,
the estimated population cancer risk may be the number of new cancer cases per
year expected among residents within 30 miles of a certain iarge source.
Noncancer Risks
Health reference levels refer to
exposure levels that will not cause significant risks of noncancer health
effects. Long-term exposure to levels below these levels are assumed to
produce no ill effects.
Health reference levels are an example
of one index that government agencies use in characterizing noncancer health
risks. These levels are generally developed from exposure levels that do not
produce ill effects in experimental animals. These exposure levels are
adjusted to account for animal-human differences (such as breathing rate) and
for underlying uncertainties (such as the difference in sensitivity between
healthy adults and more sensitive people like children and the elderly).
Risk analysts then compare the health
reference levels with the exposure estimates to determine how many people are
exposed to concentrations higher than the health reference level. Some of
these people might experience ill effects.
Uncertainty in Risk Estimates
Although scientists can estimate risks
caused by toxic air pollutants in animals experimentally or in humans who have
unusual exposures, converting these estimates to those expected in people
under a wide range of conditions is difficult, and can be misleading.
By their nature, risk estimates cannot
be completely accurate. The main problem is that scientists don't have enough
information on actual exposure and on how toxic air poilutants harm human
cells. The exposure assessment often relies on computer models when the amount
of pollutant getting from the source(s) to people can't be easily measured.
Dose-response relationships often rely on assumptions about the effects of
pollutants on cells for converting results of animal experiments at high doses
to human exposures at low doses.
When information is missing or
uncertain, risk analysts generally make assumptions that tend to prevent them
from underestimating the potential risk -- that is, these assumptions provide
a margin of safety in the protection of human health.
SUMMING IT ALL UP
- Public health agencies concerned with
air quality perform risk assessments to determine the increased risk of
illness from a specific human exposure to a toxic air pollutant.
- Risk assessment is a four-step
process: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3)
dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization.
- Hazard identitication describes the
illnesses caused by a toxic air pollutant and the amount of evidence for
those illnesses.
- The size of the increased health
risks depends on the exposure level and duration, as well as the number of
people exposed. These are estimated as part of the exposure assessment.
- The dose-response assessment
estimates the dose-response relationship, which mathematically shows the
change in the likelihood of health effects with changes in the levels of
exposure to a toxic air pollutant.
- The risk characterization uses the
above assessments to describe the type and size of any increased risk
expected as a result of exposure to the air pollutant. It also includes a
discussion of the uncertainties associated with the risk estimates.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
- Chemical Exposures: Effects on
Health. Fact Sheet CC.
- Write to: Dr. Maria Paviova; U.S. EPA;
26 Federal Plaza, Rm. 737; New York, NY 10278.
- Elements of Toxicology and Risk
Assessment.
- Write to: Environ Corporation; 1000
Potomac St., NW; Washington, DC, 20007.
- The Risk Assessment Manual: A Guide
to Understanding and Using Health and Environmental Assessments, by B.
Brockband, J. Cohrsson, and V.T. Covello. Published by the Council on
Environmental Quality, NTIS No. PB89-137772KNK.
- Write to: National Technical
Information Service; 5285 Port Royal Rd.; Springfield, VA 22161.; $17.50
charge.
- Toxicology for the Citizen, by
Alice E. Marczewski and Michael Kamrin.
- Write to: Center for Environmental
Toxicology; Michigan State University; C231 Holden Hall; East Lansing, Ml
48824; $1.00 charge.
- Air Pollution. Fact Sheet LL.
- Write to: Dr. Maria Paviova; U.S. EPA;
26 Federal Plaza, Rm. 737; New York, NY 10278.
- The Process of Risk Assessment and
Risk Management. Fact Sheet BB.
- Write to: Dr. Maria Paviova; U.S. EPA;
26 Federal Plaza, Rm. 737; New York, NY 10278.; Free.
- Glossary of Terms Related to Health
Exposure and Risk Assessment.
- EPA Air RISC. Call (919) 541-0888.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Path:
Home>Education>Environment
Information>Risk
Assessment for Toxic Air Pollutants
|